Figma & BMNR: Two Bets on the Future — Should You Invest?
Two Assets, Two Massive Trends
Figma (FIG) — the browser-native design platform that Adobe tried to buy for $20B. Now public, down ~81% from its IPO-day peak, finally trading at a level that feels reasonable for a 41%-growth, 90%-gross-margin SaaS. Think of it as the design layer for AI-native software — currently on sale.
BMNR (Bitmine Immersion Technologies) — once a tiny bitcoin miner, now the largest publicly traded Ethereum treasury company, with Tom Lee (Fundstrat) as Chairman and Peter Thiel as a backer. Holds 5.18 million ETH. Think of it as MicroStrategy for Ethereum — with one very big asterisk on the math.
Both are riding real trends: design-software repricing and crypto treasury leverage. One is a quality business with a valuation overhang; the other is a math problem hiding inside a great narrative. Let's break them down.
Figma (FIG) — The Quality SaaS at a Brutal Discount
What they do: Browser-based collaborative design. Replaced Sketch and chunks of Adobe XD/Photoshop in product-design workflows. Now a multi-product platform — Figma Design, FigJam (whiteboarding), Figma Slides, Figma Sites (publish websites), Figma Make (AI prompt-to-app). Adobe tried to acquire them in 2022 for $20B, paid a $1B reverse termination fee when EU/UK regulators blocked it, and Figma went public on its own in July 2025.
The numbers that matter:
- Current price: ~$20.70 | Range since IPO: ~$20–$143
Why it could fly: Down 81% from peak, finally trading around 10x revenue for a business growing 41% with ~90% margins and 136% NDR. The AI-substitution narrative drove the crash, but Figma Make is the opposite of AI replacing design — it's design tools getting an AI co-pilot that customers actually want. Multi-product expansion (Slides, Sites, Buzz, Make) is opening entirely new buyer personas — PMs, marketers, founders — at a content-seat price point Figma never had before. Once the August lockup clears, the forced selling stops and the multiple can finally reflect the fundamentals.
Why it could fall: Even after the 81% crash, FIG still trades at ~10x revenue — not cheap in a "show me FCF" market. AI commoditization is a real risk: Cursor, v0, Lovable, Bolt, Microsoft Designer, Canva, and open-source Penpot are all eating the wedge or making "design" less of a separate discipline. Stock-based comp is structural ($975M in Q3 2025 alone). And the lockup pain isn't done — staggered insider releases continue through June, and the final VC lockup on August 31 unlocks more than 50% of shares. CEO Dylan Field already sold $60M+ at IPO and another $15M in February 2026.
Worst case: AI-substitution narrative proves correct + August lockup floods the market + no margin expansion. Stock revisits $10.
BMNR — The MicroStrategy of Ethereum (With a Math Problem)
What it is: Originally a small bitcoin miner using immersion cooling. In summer 2025 the company pivoted to become the MSTR-of-Ethereum — continuously raising capital to buy spot ETH, then staking it for yield. Tom Lee is Chairman, Peter Thiel is a backer, and the stated long-term goal is to own 5% of all ETH supply.
The numbers that matter:
Why it could fly: This is leveraged ETH. If ETH goes from $2,336 to $10K, BMNR's NAV explodes (5.18M × $10K = $51.8B). The staking yield is real, recurring USD revenue ($300–400M/yr) — unlike most crypto plays. ETH spot ETF inflows are re-accelerating. Tom Lee's credibility plus first-mover scale gives the stock a persistent narrative premium that, in an ETH bull cycle, has historically re-expanded to 1.5–2x NAV (where MSTR has traded for years). Currently trading below NAV is unusual and, if you believe in mean reversion, structurally bullish.
Why it could fall: This is the bear case retail isn't reading. The dilution math is brutal. BMNR has authorized $24.5B more in ATM offerings. As long as mNAV stays below 1.0x — which it is right now at ~0.83x — every new share issued to buy ETH is value-destructive for existing holders, even if ETH rallies. Compare to SharpLink Gaming (SBET), the second-largest ETH treasury, which is doing $1.5B in buybacks instead — same thesis, completely opposite capital allocation. ETH price risk is real (ETH is half its 2021 ATH). Tom Lee key-man risk: if he steps back, the premium evaporates overnight. And SEC scrutiny on crypto-treasury structures is rising.
Worst case: ETH chops sideways to $1,500 + ATM dilution continues + mNAV grinds to 0.7x. Stock revisits $5.
The Weekly Investment Strategy (DCA)
Here's my approach — the safest way to play conviction bets that could go either way:
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) — invest a fixed small amount every week, regardless of price.
Why this works:
Example: $25/week in FIG over 4 volatile weeks:
| Week | Price | Shares Bought |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $20 | 1.25 |
| 2 | $25 | 1.00 |
| 3 | $18 | 1.39 |
| 4 | $22 | 1.14 |
My allocation split: $50/week total — $30 in Figma (real business, real margins, lockup overhang clears in August), $20 in BMNR (smaller because the dilution math could overwhelm an ETH rally; treat it like a lottery ticket on the premium re-expanding).
Quick Decision Guide
Choose Figma if: You believe AI is a tailwind for design tools (not a headwind), and you want exposure to a profitable, 40%-growth SaaS that's been forced down 81% by mechanics rather than fundamentals.
Choose BMNR if: You're bullish on ETH and believe Tom Lee's narrative premium can sustain, and you accept that you're in a footrace with the company's own ATM offering. This is leveraged ETH, not "ETH with extra benefits."
Choose both if: You want a profitable software bet plus a speculative crypto-leverage bet, and can hold both for 3–5 years through serious volatility.
Stay away if: You need this money within 12 months, can't handle a 50%+ drawdown without selling, or — for BMNR specifically — don't understand why an mNAV below 1.0x is structurally bad.
The Bottom Line
Figma is the quality SaaS at a discount — real business, real margins, real growth, but a brutal lockup overhang that doesn't fully clear until August 2026. The risk is multiple compression and AI substitution. The reward is a re-rating once the forced selling ends.
BMNR is the honest math problem inside a great narrative — Tom Lee, Peter Thiel, $12B in ETH, real staking yield. But the company has authorized $24.5B in further dilution while trading below NAV, which means each new share issued destroys value for existing holders. SBET (the other major ETH treasury) is doing $1.5B in buybacks instead — same thesis, completely opposite capital allocation. If you're going to own BMNR, you have to believe the mNAV premium re-expands. If it doesn't, the math wins.
Neither is a guaranteed winner. But Figma is a quality business at a beaten-up price, and BMNR is a high-conviction-low-position bet on ETH plus narrative. DCA in, stay patient, review quarterly, and never invest money you can't afford to lose.
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This is not financial advice. I'm sharing my personal research and strategy. Always do your own due diligence before investing.